[env-trinity] Fwd: [SRG] Huge inflows to Folsom; Cosumnes river flooding; eye-popping two week forecast

[Tom Stokely]

Wow!
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Deirdre Des Jardins <ddj at cah2oresearch.com>
Date: Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 3:21 PM
Subject: [SRG] Huge inflows to Folsom; Cosumnes river flooding; eye-popping
two week forecast


Hi all

CDEC says that Folsom Reservoir had 106,510 cfs inflow on December 31st. I
asked on Twitter if it was a typo.  Andy Fecko said,

Not a typo, all the forks of the American were ripping.  Our major
reservoirs are not spilling yet, so this was all accretion between Folsom
and about 5k feet. Amazing hydrologic days.


Jared Emery pointed out that the CNRFC forecast says Jan 10th inflow to
Folsom will peak at 114,000 cfs.  You can see CNRFC river forecast stages
on the CNRFC webpage:
CNRFC - Hydrology - River Guidance (noaa.gov)
<https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/rfc_guidance.php>. Currently the Eel, Navarro,
and Russian Rivers are forecast to be above flood stage, and river guidance
points on the Sacramento, Cosumnes and Mokelumne are forecast to be above
monitor stage.


[image: image.png]

There is currently some significant flooding on the Cosumnes River. This is
a photo of Highway 99 looking north to Elk Grove, from Kenneth Cantrell:

[image: image.png]

Daniel Swain's Tuesday post on the Weather West <https://weatherwest.com/> blog
warned that the weather forecast models have been "spitting out eyeball
popping double digit rainfall totals":

As recently as a couple of days ago, the multi-model ensembles had been
suggesting an end to the extremely wet pattern in Northern California by
mid-January. But they have substantially changed their tune–now suggesting
a continuation, and perhaps even an escalation, of the storm train by next
week. Recent operational runs (i.e., single ensemble members) of both GFS
and ECMWF have been spitting out eyeball-popping double digit rainfall
totals across most of NorCal, but the ensembles (although less biblical)
are starting to hit pretty concerning territory.

The next storm of high concern might occur around next Mon/Tue. Right now,
the GFS and ECMWF are both hinting at the potential for this one to arrive
in the form of a possibly very prolonged (multi-day) atmospheric river with
a strong subtropical moisture tap–very much resembling a classic
“atmospheric river family” setup. And, even further out, there may even be
the potential for a second similar storm sequence later in the week, with
little break in between.

*If* this scenario were to play out exactly as depicted in current NWP
solutions, there would be the potential for widespread major flooding
across much of NorCal sometime in the 7-10 day period. *HOWEVER*…7-10 days
in the future is still a long way out in weather model land, especially
given the high complexity of the pattern that would be required for that to
occur. The forecast will likely evolve considerably between now of then–and
it is far too early to discuss specifics. But given how remarkably wet the
ensembles are overall during this period–irrespective of whether this
specific storm sequence occurs–it is probably time to start preparing for a
potentially very significant storm sequence/flood event next week (even if
its occurrence is far from guaranteed at this early juncture).

Also, I would strongly advise folks to focus on the weather model
*ensembles,* rather than individual operational model runs, during this
period (well, generally, too, but especially now when the stakes are
rising).


Today's GFS two week forecast is showing EXTREME amounts of snow in the
Sierra Nevada over the next two weeks -- looks like 10-17 feet in some
locations.

[image: image.png]

Also potentially quite a lot of precipitation.

[image: image.png]

It will be an interesting two weeks.


-- 
Deirdre Des Jardins
California Water Research
Integrative scientific synthesis
"Science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of knowledge" --
Carl Sagan
831 566-6320
*cah2oresearch.com <http://cah2oresearch.com>*
twitter: @flowinguphill <https://twitter.com/flowinguphill>


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