<div dir="ltr">Wow!<br><div><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">Deirdre Des Jardins</b> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:ddj@cah2oresearch.com">ddj@cah2oresearch.com</a>></span><br>Date: Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 3:21 PM<br>Subject: [SRG] Huge inflows to Folsom; Cosumnes river flooding; eye-popping two week forecast<br></div><br><br><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>Hi all</div><div><br></div><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>CDEC says that Folsom Reservoir had 106,510 cfs inflow on December 31st. I asked on Twitter if it was a typo. Andy Fecko said,</div><div><br></div></div></div></div></div></div><blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px 40px;border:none;padding:0px"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr">Not a typo, all the forks of the American were ripping. Our major reservoirs are not spilling yet, so this was all accretion between Folsom and about 5k feet. Amazing hydrologic days.</div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div><div>Jared Emery pointed out that the CNRFC forecast says Jan 10th inflow to Folsom will peak at 114,000 cfs. You can see CNRFC river forecast stages on the CNRFC webpage:</div><div><a href="https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/rfc_guidance.php" target="_blank">CNRFC - Hydrology - River Guidance (noaa.gov)</a>. Currently the Eel, Navarro, and Russian Rivers are forecast to be above flood stage, and river guidance points on the Sacramento, Cosumnes and Mokelumne are forecast to be above monitor stage.<br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px 40px;border:none;padding:0px"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><img src="cid:ii_lci9t89m5" alt="image.png" width="546" height="525"></div><div><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote>There is currently some significant flooding on the Cosumnes River. This is a photo of Highway 99 looking north to Elk Grove, from Kenneth Cantrell:</div><div><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><img src="cid:ii_lcia5bco6" alt="image.png" width="410" height="546"><br></div><div><br></div><div>Daniel Swain's Tuesday post on the <a href="https://weatherwest.com/" target="_blank">Weather West</a> blog warned that the weather forecast models have been "spitting out eyeball popping double digit rainfall totals":</div><div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="margin:5pt 0in 5pt 30pt"><p style="margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;margin-left:0in"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(85,85,85)">As recently as a couple of days ago, the multi-model ensembles had been suggesting an end to the extremely wet pattern in Northern California by mid-January. But they have substantially changed their tune–now suggesting a continuation, and perhaps even an escalation, of the storm train by next week. Recent operational runs (i.e., single ensemble members) of both GFS and ECMWF have been spitting out eyeball-popping double digit rainfall totals across most of NorCal, but the ensembles (although less biblical) are starting to hit pretty concerning territory.<u></u><u></u></span></p></blockquote><blockquote style="margin:5pt 0in 5pt 30pt"><p style="margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;margin-left:0in"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(85,85,85)">The next storm of high concern might occur around next Mon/Tue. Right now, the GFS and ECMWF are both hinting at the potential for this one to arrive in the form of a possibly very prolonged (multi-day) atmospheric river with a strong subtropical moisture tap–very much resembling a classic “atmospheric river family” setup. And, even further out, there may even be the potential for a second similar storm sequence later in the week, with little break in between.<u></u><u></u></span></p><p style="margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;margin-left:0in"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(85,85,85)">*If* this scenario were to play out exactly as depicted in current NWP solutions, there would be the potential for widespread major flooding across much of NorCal sometime in the 7-10 day period. *HOWEVER*…7-10 days in the future is still a long way out in weather model land, especially given the high complexity of the pattern that would be required for that to occur. The forecast will likely evolve considerably between now of then–and it is far too early to discuss specifics. But given how remarkably wet the ensembles are overall during this period–irrespective of whether this specific storm sequence occurs–it is probably time to start preparing for a potentially very significant storm sequence/flood event next week (even if its occurrence is far from guaranteed at this early juncture).<u></u><u></u></span></p><p style="margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:11.25pt;margin-left:0in"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(85,85,85)">Also, I would strongly advise folks to focus on the weather model *ensembles,* rather than individual operational model runs, during this period (well, generally, too, but especially now when the stakes are rising).</span></p></blockquote></div><div><br></div><div>Today's GFS two week forecast is showing EXTREME amounts of snow in the Sierra Nevada over the next two weeks -- looks like 10-17 feet in some locations.</div><div><br></div><img src="cid:ii_lci8ydb20" alt="image.png" style="margin-right:0px" width="671" height="518"><div style="text-align:center"><br></div><div>Also potentially quite a lot of precipitation.</div><div><br></div><div><img src="cid:ii_lci92pf71" alt="image.png" style="margin-right:0px" width="643" height="497"></div><div><br></div><div>It will be an interesting two weeks.</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px 40px;border:none;padding:0px"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>-- <br><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>Deirdre Des Jardins</div><div>California Water Research</div><div>Integrative scientific synthesis</div><div><img src="https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/mail-sig/AIorK4wU3a6Rd8z2sIimtJYN0ZV2Be90oKZhw3yz5dTtairiVdkMCiQwJzk9qzfl54XMihy6wJBmsjw" width="200" height="66"></div><div><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34)">"Science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of knowledge" -- Carl Sagan</span><br></div><div>831 566-6320</div><div><u><font color="#000032"><a href="http://cah2oresearch.com" target="_blank">cah2oresearch.com</a></font></u></div><div><u></u><font color="#000120"></font><u></u><font color="#000032"></font>twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/flowinguphill" target="_blank">@flowinguphill</a></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This electronic message is intended to be viewed only by the individual or entity to whom it is addressed. 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