<html><head></head><body><div class="ydpad741d98yahoo-style-wrap" style="font-family: garamond, new york, times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"> <div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><h1 class="ydpb7fbbc28headline"><span>https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-04-28/water-california-west-drought</span><br></h1><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><h1 class="ydpb7fbbc28headline">
Column: Water created California and the West. Will drought finish them off?
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<img src="https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/dad66a0/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2048x1536+0+0/resize/840x630!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Faa%2F4a%2F69b04195409e944d5dec17a96007%2Fnewsomdrought.jpg" alt="Gov. Gavin Newsom stand in a dry lake bed." style="width: 100%; max-width: 800px;">
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<div class="ydpb7fbbc28figure-caption">Gov. Gavin Newsom holds an emergency
drought declaration for Sonoma and Mendocino counties Wednesday while
standing on the dry bed of Lake Mendocino.</div><div class="ydpb7fbbc28figure-credit">(Office of the Governor/Facebook)</div>
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<span class="ydpb7fbbc28byline-prefix">By </span><a href="https://www.latimes.com/people/michael-hiltzik" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span>Michael Hiltzik</span></a><span class="ydpb7fbbc28author-title">Business Columnist </span>
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<span class="ydpb7fbbc28published-date-day">April 28, 2021 </span><span class="ydpb7fbbc28published-time">6 AM PT </span>
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<div class="ydpb7fbbc28rich-text-article-body-content ydpb7fbbc28rich-text-body"><p>In
what may become an iconic image for drought-stricken California, Gov.
Gavin Newsom stood on the parched bed of Lake Mendocino on April 21 to
announce an <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/4.21.21-Emergency-Proclamation-1.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">emergency declaration</a> for Sonoma and Mendocino counties.</p><p>“<a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlseO5Eua28" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">I’m standing currently 40 feet underwater</a>,” he said, “or should be standing 40 feet underwater, save for this rather historic moment.”</p><p>Newsom’s
point was that the reservoir was at a historically low 43% of capacity,
the harbinger of what could be a devastating drought cycle not only for
the Northern California counties that fell within his drought
declaration, but for most of the state — indeed, the American West.</p><div class="ydpb7fbbc28enhancement" data-align-center=""><div class="ydpb7fbbc28quote">
<blockquote>
<p class="ydpb7fbbc28quote-body">Gentlemen, you are piling up a heritage of
conflict and litigation over water rights, for there is not sufficient
water to supply the land.</p>
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<p class="ydpb7fbbc28quote-attribution">John Wesley Powell, 1893</p>
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<p>The last extended drought struck California in 2012-16. Still fresh
in the memory, it was a period of stringent mandated cutbacks in water
usage. </p><p>Lawns were forced to go brown, homeowners prompted to
replace their thirsty yards with drought-resistant landscaping and to
upgrade their vintage dishwashers and laundry machines with new
water-efficient models. Profligate users were ferreted out from public
records and, if they could be identified, shamed. </p><p>Although there
have been wet years since then, notably 2017, the big picture suggests
that the drought never really ended and the dry periods of this year and
2020 are representative of the new normal — a permanent drought. </p><div class="ydpb7fbbc28enhancement" data-align-center="">
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<p>Experts warn that climate change will only make things worse. The
years 2014 and 2015 were the two hottest on record, “which made coping
with water shortages even more difficult,” the <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/californias-water-managing-droughts-november-2018.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Public Policy Institute of California observed in 2018</a>. </p><p>Research
suggests that extreme dry years will become more common, but so will
extreme wet years. The latter isn’t a panacea for the drought, because
the state’s water storage capacity can be overwhelmed by excessive
rainfall, especially if a warmer climate reduces the snowpack, nature’s
own seasonal reservoir.</p><p>Newsom’s step-wise approach of declaring
emergencies in the hardest-hit regions of the state and holding back
elsewhere until conditions spread shouldn’t leave any doubt that the
crisis is just beginning.</p><p>“We’re definitely in a drought,” Jeffrey
Kightlinger, general manager of the giant Metropolitan Water District
of Southern California, told me. “This may go down as one of the five
worst years on record.” </p>
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<p class="ydpb7fbbc28promo-timestamp" data-date="May 16, 2018" data-shouldshowdate="true" data-shouldshowtime="true" data-timestamp="1526494500000" data-show-timestamp="true">May 16, 2018</p>
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<p>Water supply in the State Water Project, which distributes water to
agencies and districts serving 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres
of farmland, is so low that the project is delivering only 5% of
requested supplies this year. The allocation has fallen that far only <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Programs/State-Water-Project/Management/SWP-Water-Contractors/Files/1996-2021-Allocation-Progression.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">twice before since 1996</a>, according to the state Department of Water Resources, which runs the project.</p><p>It
may already be too late to avoid some of the conflicts and consequences
of the drought age in California. Every segment of society will have to
come to terms with deepening scarcity, and with each others’ competing
demands. </p><p>Residential users, growers, the fishing industry and
stewards of the environment will be increasingly at odds, unless the
state can craft a drought response that spreads sacrifices in a way that
each group considers fair. To ask the question whether that is likely
is to answer it.</p>
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<img data-src="https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/1e61144/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1808x656+0+0/resize/840x305!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fa2%2F2d%2F384fa8214bdbb4f7436e45d07dde%2Fppic.jpg" src="https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/1e61144/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1808x656+0+0/resize/840x305!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fa2%2F2d%2F384fa8214bdbb4f7436e45d07dde%2Fppic.jpg" alt="Dry years" data-inlineimagemanipulating="true" style="width: 100%; max-width: 800px;">
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<div class="ydpb7fbbc28figure-caption">Dry years, defined as those with
below-average precipitation (brown), have outnumbered wet years in
California at least since before 1900—and they’re becoming more common
and more severe.</div><div class="ydpb7fbbc28figure-credit">(Public Policy Institute of California)</div>
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<p>California’s water policies and infrastructure were products of an
era of abundance. During a century of growth there always seemed to be
enough water to satisfy demand — and when there wasn’t, engineering
know-how and public funding provided the means to move water from where
it was to where demand was growing.</p><p>That was the case with the
construction of the Los Angeles and Colorado River aqueducts early in
the last century and the State Water Project and federal Central Valley
Project in succeeding decades.</p><p>Complacency marked some of this
work. The expectations of the water supply that would be provided by
Hoover Dam, for example, were based on surveys of the Colorado River’s
flow taken during a historically wet period. </p>
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<img class="ydpb7fbbc28image" alt="FT. BRAGG-CA-JULY 24, 2018: Heather Sears is photographed on her fishing boat in Ft. Bragg. Sears, who operated a fishing boat for years has seen her business dwindle as water is diverted to agriculture from rivers where salmon spawn. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)" data-src="https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/0c72f91/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1739x1152+154+0/resize/320x212!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fbc%2Fe3%2F6155a2f384af795d3e78a96d12ca%2Fla-1533324884-rayavaygr5-snap-image" src="https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/0c72f91/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1739x1152+154+0/resize/320x212!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fbc%2Fe3%2F6155a2f384af795d3e78a96d12ca%2Fla-1533324884-rayavaygr5-snap-image" data-inlineimagemanipulating="true" style="width: 320px; max-width: 320px;" data-id="1619647202862">
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<p class="ydpb7fbbc28promo-timestamp" data-date="Aug. 3, 2018" data-shouldshowdate="true" data-shouldshowtime="true" data-timestamp="1533324600000" data-show-timestamp="true">Aug. 3, 2018</p>
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<p>The river has never provided as much water as was estimated in 1922,
when the prospective supply was apportioned among the seven states of
the Colorado basin. Dealing with the shortfall has been a challenge ever
since, at one point even bringing Arizona and California to the brink
of interstate war.</p><p>Water policy in California has historically
been reactive rather than proactive. The first years of 2012-16 drought
yielded the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. Known as SGMA and
signed by Gov. Jerry Brown in 2016, the law was the first to regulate
the exploitation of groundwater, which feeds one-third of the state’s
demand in normal years and half in dry years. </p><p>The SGMA places
overdrawn groundwater regions, such as the southern part of the
agriculturally rich Central Valley, under stringent rules starting in
2040.</p>
<p>The drought has already left its mark on California.</p><p>Rate
increases by the San Diego County Water Authority averaging 8% a year
over the last decade have driven many of that county’s avocado growers
out of business, <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/story/2021-04-10/san-diego-water-rates" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">local farmers say</a>, but the pain is more widespread: Agricultural acreage in the county fell to <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/awm/docs/AWM%202019%20Crop%20Annual%20Report%20spreads%20web_20200805.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">234,477 in 2019</a> from <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/common_components/images/awm/Docs/2010_Crop_Report_2.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">302,000 in 2010</a>. </p> <p>Residents in the San Jose region are facing <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/04/14/a-scary-scenario-why-water-bills-in-san-jose-will-start-rising-this-summer/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">annual rate increases</a>
for drinking water of up to 9.6% each year for the next eight years;
that would mean increases of as much as $5.10 a month on their bills,
according to the Santa Clara Valley Water District. </p><p>Let’s take a look at the implications for different segments of California society.</p><p>To begin with, the structure of California agriculture will have to change, though no one is yet sure how. </p>
<p>“The unfortunate reality is that some amount of farmland will
probably have to go out of production to manage the reduced supply of
water,” says Ann Hayden, a water expert at the Environmental Defense
Fund in Sacramento. She calls for planning now “to support farmers as
they’re making decisions about what lands to take out of production.”
Fallowed land, she observes, creates air quality and water quality
problems that will have to be addressed proactively.</p><div class="ydpb7fbbc28enhancement" data-align-center="">
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<p class="ydpb7fbbc28promo-timestamp" data-date="Aug. 12, 2019" data-shouldshowdate="true" data-shouldshowtime="true" data-timestamp="1565632662877" data-show-timestamp="true">Aug. 12, 2019</p>
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<p>Among the crops vulnerable to changing conditions are almonds, which at <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/Statistics/PDFs/2020_Ag_Stats_Review.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">$6 billion in value</a>
are the state’s second-largest farm commodity (after milk and cream).
Driven by the profits to be made, almond acreage has roughly doubled
over the last decade to 1.6 million acres.</p><p>Almonds are known as
thirsty crops, but the real significance of the expansion of acreage is
that they’re permanent crops — they must be watered every year. As a
result, almond orchards have been heavy users of groundwater. That’s a
practice certain to come under pressure as the SGMA mandates come into
effect in 2040. </p>
<p>Almond growers are only now starting to come to terms with the looming restrictions. “I’ve been in the industry for 25 years,” <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.aginfo.net/report/46088/California-Tree-Nut-Report/The-Sustainable-Groundwater-Management-Act-is-Another-Major-Disruption-to-Treenut-Growers" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Holly A. King</a>,
a grower and chair of the California Almond Board, told the California
Tree Nut Report last year. “What’s it going to look like in 25 more
years? It’s not going to look like what it is today.”</p><p>As
agricultural and residential demands take center stage, the environment
suffers. In commercial terms, the fishing industry bears the brunt. The
state’s salmon fishery was on the verge of being <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-caltrump-salmon-20180802-story.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">wiped out during the last drought stage</a>. This one could finish the job. </p><p>As
pressure intensifies on federal officials to increase releases from the
Central Valley Project’s Shasta Lake — the reservoir behind Shasta Dam
on the Sacramento River — to serve farmers, the threat to the fishing
industry intensifies. </p><div class="ydpb7fbbc28enhancement" data-align-center="">
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<a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.latimes.com/business" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Business</a>
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<a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-20150412-column.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">The wrong way to think about California water</a>
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<p class="ydpb7fbbc28promo-timestamp" data-date="April 11, 2015" data-shouldshowdate="true" data-shouldshowtime="true" data-timestamp="1428764414000" data-show-timestamp="true">April 11, 2015</p>
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<p>That’s because releasing water raises the temperature of the
reservoir and then the river. “We’re looking at the loss of 90%-100% of
juvenile salmon in the Sacramento River this fall,” says Barry Nelson, a
consultant to the Golden Gate Salmon Assn. That would wipe out fall-run
salmon, the industry’s lifeblood. </p><p>The last time that happened,
in 2014-15, as few as 2% of naturally spawning fall-run salmon survived.
“They were killed in their nests,” Nelson says. “They were cooked by
high water temperatures.”</p><p>If there’s a bright spot in drought
planning, it’s in the Southern California residential sector, which has
become a world-leader in water conservation and recycling. Within the
MWD, total water demand has fallen over the last decade even as the
population has edged up to 19 million from 18 million. </p><p>Much of
the gain has come from installation of stingier household appliances,
but much more can be done in exterior demand through the planting of
drought-resistant vegetation to replace lawns. “We think we’ve gotten
all the low-hanging fruit indoors,” Kightlinger says, “but there’s a lot
more we could do outdoors. We could probably squeeze out another 10% to
20% relatively painlessly.”</p>
<p>By pushing down demand, the MWD has been able to store more water.
Its current storage of about 3.4 million acre-feet (one acre-foot or
326,000 gallons is enough to supply one or two families for a year)
would cushion the district for about six or seven years, Kightlinger
says, given expected supplies coming from the Colorado and in-state
sources.</p><p>But more planning and management will be needed in coming
decades. Some solutions that seemed drastic in the past are getting
closer looks. Those include draining Lake Powell, north of the Grand
Canyon on the Arizona-Utah border, and making Lake Mead, behind Hoover
Dam, the primary reservoir on the Colorado River for California, Arizona
and Nevada. </p><p>The “Fill Mead First” campaign says that would
reduce losses from evaporation and preserve Mead’s capacity to generate
hydroelectricity. But deliberately lowering Lake Powell would foster a
political backlash in the upper-basin states of Wyoming, Utah and
Colorado, which view Lake Powell‘s supply as a sort of guarantee that
they can exploit the headwaters of the Colorado for their own purposes.</p><p>Both
reservoirs are approaching critically low levels, with the surface of
Mead currently about 150 feet below its maximum, with expectations that
it could fall an additional 50 feet by late 2022; Powell is currently
about 134 feet below its maximum elevation, and could fall an additional
25 feet by early next year, according to <a class="ydpb7fbbc28link" href="https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">projections by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation</a>.</p>
<p>If all this seems dizzyingly complicated, that’s the product of more
than a century of fragmented water law and policy in California. The
riddle can’t be solved by a patchwork of emergency declarations, no
matter how urgent, but only by the crafting now of a comprehensive plan
to address the inevitable consequences of climate change in the already
arid West.</p><p>It’s well past time to come to terms with the words of
John Wesley Powell, who led the first government expedition of the Grand
Canyon, and who warned of a fraught future at a Los Angeles irrigation
conference in 1893.</p><p>“Gentlemen,” he said, “you are piling up a
heritage of conflict and litigation over water rights, for there is not
sufficient water to supply the land.”</p></div>
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