[env-trinity] Trinity Journal: Headed to dead pool?

Wed Feb 9 17:10:38 PST 2022

Also attached is a blog by Doug Obegi of NRDC explaining the senior water contracts mentioned in the article below.
TS

Headed to dead pool?

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Headed to dead pool?

Tony Reed The Trinity Journal

While one will likely find thousands of search results using the term Deadpool, the vast majority will have litt...
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Headed to dead pool?

After a wet start to winter, a dry start to the new year has many worried

   - By Tony Reed The Trinity Journal

   - 10 hrs ago

   -  0

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A makeshift road had to be constructed to get down to the lowering water level at the Trinity Alps Marina on Trinity Lake.

   - Tony Reed | The Trinity Journal

The Trinity Alps Marina near the Trinity Dam, with the lake level more than 140 feet from the crest.

   - Tony Reed | The Trinity Journal

Michael Novak measures snow pack in the Trinity Alps last month.

   - Josh Smith | Special to the Trinity Journal

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While one will likely find thousands of search results using the term Deadpool, the vast majority will have little to do with Trinity County, the Trinity River or Trinity Lake. The one that will matter is this definition commonly used in water management; Deadpool: the point at which a dam no longer has enough water to generate hydroelectricity. Some water experts are predicting that unless the county receives significant rain and/or snow soon, that could happen in Trinity Lake this year.

Tom Stokely, water policy director with the California Water Impact Network, says there is a possibility that Trinity and Shasta lakes may be drained to the point of Deadpool this summer and the reason would be overallocation. He cited a study in 2014 by the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences that determined the state has allocated more water than it has to give.

“This assessment indicates that water allocated through the state appropriate water rights system exceeds overall mean water supplies by approximately five times,” the 2014 study reads. “Our findings also highlight river basins where significant over-allocation of surface water supplies is likely to lead to conflicts among water users, particularly during periods of water scarcity when insufficient water is available to satisfy all face-value water right demands.”

Stokely said additional contracts bump the allocations up to seven times the supply, and that no matter how much it rains, those claims can never be met.

Stokely said that while those contracts are based on water availability, the contracted beneficiaries tend to act as if the water allocation amounts were guaranteed regardless.

Referring to contract allocations as “paper water,” Stokely said the release of such allocations will keep Trinity Lake from ever filling completely.

He added that deals were signed before the dam was built, and that water was already being diverted from the river before the Bureau of Reclamation was formed.

“When the Bureau of Reclamation applied for permits, they protested and got a sweet contract saying that if Shasta Lake has an inflow amount, they get 100 percent of the contracted amount,” he said, “and if it falls below 3.2 million acre-feet, they still get 75 percent (of the contracted amount).” He said even 75 percent is a “huge amount of water.”

The full study can be found at https://watershed.ucdavis.edu/files/content/news/WaterRights_UCDavis_study.pdf.

Temperature control

Should Stokely’s prediction come true, the county would face impacts to much more than just recreation.

Agriculture is not the only life supported by Trinity County water since there is much life in the water itself. River water has to be a certain temperature in order for salmon to survive, according to the Trinity River Restoration Program website. Stokely said that while 600,000 acre-feet is allocated for the Trinity River Record of Decision to keep water cool, a National Marine Fisheries Service requirement allows for that allocation to be cut further. He said 600,000 acre-feet is not adequate to protect fish, and in fact, problems start to occur when the amount goes below 750,000 acre-feet. Stokely said the result of under allocating water for temperature control could mean “a lot of dead fish.” He said even if the Bureau of Reclamation were to cut off flows to the Sacramento River, the river would still be quite warm and waters would also warm up near Lewiston.

“We’re in a world of hurt unless we get some kind of miracle,” he said.

He said there has been litigation and a new plan is being developed but it’s questionable whether the bureau will give priority to the fish or the water contracts. Stokely was not optimistic for the fish.

Snow on the horizon

While a glance at the mountains seems to indicate that snow is disappearing from the peaks daily, a recent Trinity Alps snowpack survey by the Watershed Research and Training Center shows interesting results.

“The snowpack is unique right now,” according to an email from Joshua Smith of the WRTC. “It isn’t a ton of snow (or water content), but it does seem to be an extremely solid and durable base above 6,000 feet that will likely accumulate snow on top of it fast if we ever get some precipitation again.”

At Red Rock Mountain on Jan. 29, snow was 39 inches deep with a snow/ water equivalent of 15 percent, meaning 10 inches of snow would melt into 1.5 inches of water.

Measured on Jan. 30, the snow at Bear Basin measured 30.5 inches with a snow/ water equivalent of 11.5 percent.

Shimmy Lake showed the highest readings of 40.5 inches with a snow/water equivalent of 15.5 percent.

At this time last April, those measurements were 65 inches, 57 inches, and 60.5 inches, respectively. Historically, peak heights are observed in April. The immediate forecast from the National Weather Service shows no chance of rain into the coming weekend.

Predictions to date from the California Nevada River Forecast Center show lake levels continuing to drop since the last rain/snow event in early January. The average lake level is about 1.1 million acre-feet of water and the current level is much lower at 839,000 acre-feet as of Feb. 4. The record low for the lake was 326,000 acre-feet in 2021, according to CNRFC.

Around the region, similar alarms are sounding. According to a release from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, snowpack surveys showed promise during last month’s storms, but the snowpack in Klamath National Forest has since languished below the long-term seasonal average because of warmer weather.

“According to measurements taken for the February survey, the snowpack is at 62% of the historic average snow height (snow depth) and at 58% of the historic average Snow Water Equivalent (SWE, a measure of water content) across all survey points,” the USDA report states. “Historically, snowpack reaches its annual maximum by late-March/early-April.”

Officials at the Bureau of Reclamation are expecting the latest snow surveys next week. Elizabeth Hadley, deputy area manager for the Northern California BOR office, said those numbers are used to determine the water forecasts for area reservoirs, agriculture, hydropower and stream flows. She predicted that with the lack of rain in recent weeks, those forecasts will be dramatically different from last month’s.

A regional issue

Chances are that if Trinity Lake reaches dead pool, other hydropower reservoirs in Northern California would be in similar circumstances.

Asked last year what would happen if the lake got too low to generate power, Trinity Public Utilities District Manager Paul Hauser said the county is still guaranteed power from farther down the line.

“That’s why, to date, we have always been able to get all of our power from the Central Valley Project,” he said. “Even if Trinity Reservoir gets to dead pool and we can’t generate power, as long as all of the CVP reservoirs aren’t at dead pool we would still get federal hydropower and it would be shipped in over Western Area Power Association power lines.”

January saw almost no rain over Trinity County, and the immediate forecast doesn’t call for more yet in February.

Hauser said last week that if the lake were to drain to below the turbines that produce electricity, the Western Area Power Administration is contracted to procure power from another source. He said that power would come from Central Valley Project hydropower plants in the region, such as Shasta Lake. If those sources are unable to generate power, it would come from farther away over WAPA lines. He said that while the transition to another power source would be seamless, it could come at increased cost to the ratepayers. While the district charges a drought surcharge to cover that possibility, going outside of CVP sources could drive up the price.

“However, if we reach that point, it would be impactful to the state as a whole,” he said, noting that if Northern California hydropower sources cannot produce power, the high demand period and other factors could result in rolling blackouts across the state.

He explained that the inlet for the turbines is higher than it would be for the river, and a bypass gate would continue to allow water to pass through if it reached dead pool. However, Hauser said dead pool has not occurred in the history of the CVP, and if it happened at Trinity Dam, the river would still flow as it did before the dam.

As for the level at which that could happen, Hauser said he hopes the Bureau of Reclamation would enact water-saving measures long before that point to make the lake water last until next winter.

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