[env-trinity] CBB: Study Identifies Ocean Distribution Of Fall Chinook

[David Webb]

Sure looked that way to me too--Glad to have gotten it, but didn't see 
anything new in the summary.

Some of us on the Shasta put together a proposal to the KRBFTF to GSI 
Klamath stocks at least 20 years ago with a cutting edge researcher who 
was prepared to loose money on the effort if that was what it took.  Got 
killed, I suspect by users who didn't want to go anywhere near weak 
stock management.  Better to collectively beat them into the ground for 
short term gains.  And 50% harvest rate--how about 66% as the Klamath 
target, with no  justification then or adequate review later.

At least they are thinking about it, but  I have to suspect they are 
just rehashing hatchery cwt data.

Dave


On 6/20/2018 12:34 PM, Kier Associates wrote:
>
> This Columbia Basin Bulletin article is stunningly uninformative.
>
> Nowhere does it - nor the summary of the Canadian Journal of Fisheries 
> and Aquatic Sciences it cites - identify how fish from the various 
> river-basin stocks have been identified
>
> Has the zombie West Coast Salmon Genetic Stock Identification 
> Collaboration 
> <pacificfishtrax.org/media/WCSGSI_Activity%20Report%2010Feb2011.pdf> 
> come to life? I assume so if Mr Satterthwaite 
> <https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjV-pmw-uLbAhVG-qwKHVMYA4QQFggnMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigitalcommons.csumb.edu%2Fcgi%2Fviewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1026%26context%3Dsns_fac&usg=AOvVaw3u6KUhmo4_bo2rEcH12OIi> 
> was part of the project team
>
> But not a word - did you notice? - of how the fish were identified as 
> to their rivers of origin - just talk of the model/ its results
>
> --
>
> Nat Bingham, then the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s 
> Associations restoration coordinator, saw with crystal clarity the 
> wisdom of the then-nascent  genetic stock identification (GSI) 
> science/ how the Human Genome Project had thrust the rapid DNA 
> analysis tools into our hands, and he was pushing for a West Coast GSI 
> collaboration with might and main at the time of his untimely death 20 
> years ago last month
>
> Advancing GSI science will substantially strengthen the management of 
> mixed-stock Pacific salmon ocean fisheries
>
> So far as I can tell the Columbia Basin Bulletin article does nothing 
> to spotlight GSI
>
> Did I miss something?
>
> Bill Kier
>
> *From:*env-trinity 
> [mailto:env-trinity-bounces at velocipede.dcn.davis.ca.us] *On Behalf Of 
> *Sari Sommarstrom
> *Sent:* Wednesday, June 20, 2018 10:22 AM
> *To:* 'Env-trinity'
> *Subject:* [env-trinity] CBB: Study Identifies Ocean Distribution Of 
> Fall Chinook
>
> Columbia Basin Bulletin
>
> *Study Identifies Ocean Distribution Of Fall Chinook; Should Help 
> Target/Avoid Certain Stocks *
>
> Posted on Friday, June 15, 2018 (PST)
>
> A recent study of the general locations of salmon in the Pacific Ocean 
> could help managers steer heavy fishing away from threatened and 
> endangered stocks.
>
> The study estimates the distribution in the ocean of a far-ranging 
> number of fall run chinook stocks, including populations from 
> California’s Central Valley to populations in southern British Columbia.
>
> “We show how fall chinook from different river systems have 
> systematically different ocean distributions and that these ocean 
> distributions can vary substantively by season,” said Andrew Olaf 
> Shelton, a research ecologist in the Conservation Biology Division of 
> NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle. “We use these 
> new estimates of ocean distribution to make projections of how many 
> fall chinook salmon from different origin systems are in different 
> spatial areas.”
>
> He added that the information from the study should be useful to 
> managers thinking about how to target, or avoid, particular stocks. 
> Shelton called these “spatial management options.”
>
> Historically, commercial and recreational fisheries took a high 
> fraction of salmon returns, in some cases over 50 percent of the 
> returning fish, Shelton said. However, fisheries harvest has declined 
> over the past 30 years coast-wide, including the closure of some 
> fisheries entirely – the Strait of Georgia commercial troll fishery – 
> or the temporary closure of some areas like the California and 
> southern Oregon troll closure more recently.
>
> As a general guideline, fish were generally distributed in the ocean 
> near to their origin, the study says. For example, fish that originate 
> between California and southern Oregon almost always remain in waters 
> south of British Columbia, while fish originating in the far north, 
> seldom journeyed south. Nearly all chinook found in the Salish sea 
> originated there and few strays from other areas are found.
>
> Fish from the Columbia River basin showed the broadest spatial 
> distribution “with significant proportions present in areas from 
> California to Alaska.”
>
> In addition, there are seasonal distributions occurring with fish from 
> nearly all regions, according to the study. Fish from a given region 
> in the ocean tend to be in more northerly areas in summer than in 
> winter or spring, and because of spawning migrations, chinook tend to 
> be located near their region of origin in the fall.
>
> “Using hierarchical models to estimate stock-specific and seasonal 
> variation in ocean distribution, survivorship, and aggregate abundance 
> of fall run Chinook salmon” was published online April 15, 2018, in 
> the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 
> (http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0204#.WyLJ_qdKjIU).
>
> Shelton’s co-authors are Will Satterthwaite, research ecologist in the 
> Fisheries Ecology Division at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science 
> Center in Santa Cruz; Eric Ward and Blake Feist, statisticians, in the 
> Conservation Biology Division at the Northwest Fisheries Science 
> Center; and Brian Burke, supervisory research fishery biologist, fish 
> ecology division at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center.
>
> “We show that Chinook salmon ocean distribution depends strongly on 
> region of origin and varies seasonally while survival showed 
> regionally varying temporal patterns,” the study says. “Simulations 
> incorporating juvenile production data provide proportional stock 
> composition in different ocean regions and the first coastwide 
> projections of Chinook salmon aggregate abundance.”
>
> Although not directly addressing abundance of juveniles in the ocean, 
> Shelton said, the models developed by these researchers do, among 
> other things, estimate survival of young chinook salmon from each 
> release group and assesses how survival changed over the years of the 
> study (releases between 1978 and 1990).
>
> “In general our results show a mild decline in survivorship for most 
> (but not all) origin regions over that period, but there is a lot of 
> variability both within and among regions,” Shelton said. “We are 
> interested in trying to understand both the trend across years and the 
> variability within years in future work.”
>
> The general importance of this study is that it provides predictions 
> of ocean distribution of fall chinook that will help improve 
> management over both the short and long term. Understanding which 
> stocks are where and when they are there is important for allowing 
> exploitation on healthy stocks and avoiding harvest on depleted stocks.
>
> “Our work is not the final say for chinook salmon ocean distribution, 
> but it is an important step forward,” Shelton said. “Our work provides 
> methods for estimating ocean distribution of salmon species that are 
> general and extendable.”
>
> He said the researchers are now working to incorporate data from 
> recent years to other species and run types (they are currently 
> expanding their work to spring chinook), and to include information 
> about how ocean distributions shift with climactic drivers such as 
> ocean temperature.
>
> The model also allows individuals to play out management scenarios to 
> understand the consequences for chinook abundance, Shelton said.
>
> One example summarized in the study is a prediction of the 
> consequences of reducing by half the number of hatchery fish of Puget 
> Sound stocks. In that case, available fish would decline substantively 
> in Puget Sound, but other areas would also be notably affected, he said.
>
> Other uses for the model could include an investigation of the 
> consequences of shifting the spatial and seasonal intensity of ocean 
> fisheries for particular stocks. It can be applied to understand 
> drivers of chinook salmon biology, such as climate effects on ocean 
> distribution as well as the management effects of changing juvenile 
> production.
>
> “Our work as a tool has broad application for understanding patterns 
> of spatio-temporal variation among Chinook salmon and other tagged 
> salmonid populations,” the study says. “Additionally, it is a 
> simulation platform for exploring the consequences of biological 
> variation and management decisions on an important marine resource.”
>
>
>
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