[env-trinity] CBB: NOAA Fisheries Model Estimates Cost of 2017 Salmon Fisheries Closure; Millions in Lost Income

[Sari Sommarstrom]

The Columbia Basin Bulletin: Weekly Fish and Wildlife News

www.cbbulletin.com      April 6, 2018        Issue No. 867

 


NOAA Fisheries Model Estimates Cost Of 2017 Salmon Fisheries Closure;
Millions In Lost Income 
Posted on Friday, April 06, 2018 (PST) 


Last year's closure of the commercial ocean salmon troll fishery off the
West Coast is estimated to have cost $5.8 million to $8.9 million in lost
income for fishermen, with the loss of 200 to 330 jobs, according to a new
model that determines the cost of fisheries closures based on the choices
fishermen make.

 

Scientists hope the model, described for the first time this week in Marine
Policy, will help policy makers anticipate the economic toll of fisheries
closures. Such foresight may be especially useful as conditions in the
California Current off the West Coast grow increasingly variable, leading to
more potential closures, said lead author Kate Richerson, a marine ecologist
with NOAA Fisheries' Northwest Fisheries Science Center and the University
of Washington.

 

"We're probably only going to see more of these closures in the future," she
said, "so being able to predict their effects and fallout for coastal
communities puts us ahead of the curve in terms of considering those impacts
in planning and management decisions."

 

The study can be found at
<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X17306668?via%3Di
hub>
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X17306668?via%3Dih
ub

 

The new model estimates the future losses associated with fisheries closures
based on the way fishermen reacted to previous closures. It anticipates, for
instance, that many fishermen will simply quit fishing rather than shift
their efforts to another fishery. In this way, the model accounts for the
difficulty fishermen face in entering other fisheries with limited permits,
Richerson said.

 

The research is the first attempt to predict the effect of fisheries
closures before they happen, said Dan Holland, an economist at the Northwest
Fisheries Science Center and coauthor of the study. The model, developed
prior to the 2017 closure, also can help identify the most affected
communities.

 

For example, Coos Bay and Brookings, Oregon, and Eureka, California, were
among the hardest hit by the 2017 salmon closures because they are
geographically located in the center of the closure that stretched from
Northern California to Oregon. The closure led to the estimated loss of
about 50 percent of fisheries-related employment in Coos Bay and about 35
percent declines in fishing-related income and sales. Predicted percentage
declines in overall fishing-related income are lower than declines in salmon
income, since many fishermen were predicted to continue to participate in
other fisheries.

 

The study estimated that the closure led to a loss of $12.8 million to $19.6
million in sales. Richerson noted that the model estimates only the economic
consequences of the closure to the commercial ocean salmon fishery and does
not include the toll on recreational fisheries or in-river fisheries, which
would make the total losses even higher. 

 

The closure recommended by the Pacific Fishery Management Council and
adopted by NOAA Fisheries was designed to protect low returns of salmon to
the Klamath River in Northern California.

 

 

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