[env-trinity] 77, 000 acres of thirsty new California almond orchards planted over past year

[Dan Bacher]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/29/1587954/-77-000-acres-of-thirsty-new-California-almond-orchards-planted-over-past-year



While serving on the board of Conservation International, Stewart  
Resnick become notorious for buying subsidized Delta water and then  
selling it back to the public for a big profit as Delta fish and  
Central Valley salmon populations crashed.


77,000 acres of thirsty new California almond orchards planted over  
past year

by Dan Bacher

California growers expanded water-intensive almond orchards by 77,000  
acres over the past year, continuing the increase in new acreage  
during one of the worst droughts in the state’s history.


The expansion in acreage for almonds, as well as for walnuts,  
pistachios and other nut crops, took place as Governor Jerry Brown  
mandated that urban users statewide conserve water by 25 percent.

The increase also occurred as massive state and federal water exports  
from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta continued to drive  
Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon, Central Valley steelhead,  
Delta and longfin smelt and other fish species closer and closer to  
extinction. (www.dailykos.com/...)

In addition, the groundwater pumping during the drought to sustain  
increased nut tree acreage caused sections of the San Joaquin Valley  
to subside even further.

California nurseries have sold at least 14.51 million almond trees   
since June 1, 2015, according to the 2016 California Almond Nursery  
Sales Report. Plantings from 2012 to 2016 were used to calculate an  
average trees per acre of 135, based on the Almond Acreage Survey,

“Almost 108,000 acres of almonds have been planted since June 2015,”  
according to the USDA report. “A little over 71 percent of the total  
trees sold, 77,000 acres, are new almond orchard acres and 25 percent  
(27,000 acres) replaced existing almond orchards. The remaining trees  
sold replaced trees within existing almond orchards.”

California bearing almond acreage has increased from 442,000 to  
900,000 from 1997 through June 2016, according to report figures. When  
you add the non-bearing almond acreage of 220,000, the total acreage  
comes to 1,120,000.

Almonds use about 3.29 million acre-feet of water in a year, or about  
9.5% of California’s agricultural water, based on findings from the  
California Almond Sustainability Program. (www.almonds.com/...)

During the latest drought from 2012 to 2015, the bearing acreage  
increased from 820,000 in 2012 to 890,000 in 2015, a total of 70,000  
acres. The non-bearing acreage went from 110,000 in 2012 to 220,000, a  
total of 110,000 acres.

That’s a total of 180,000 acres in new almond tree acreage. When you  
add the 77,000 acres added over the past year, that amounts to a total  
of 257,000 acres.

Ironically, Rabobank N.A., an agricultural lending group, on October  
25 released a report revealing that agricultural land prices in the  
Central Valley will decline by as much as 30 percent between now and  
the end of 2017, following several years of big increases. (www.rabobankamerica.com/...)

“Agricultural land prices are giving back some of their increases,  
particularly in regions where tree-nut prices have had an impact on  
previously rising valuations,” said Roland Fumasi, a senior analyst  
with Rabobank’s FAR unit. “Nut prices have since plummeted from their  
highs in the past year to 18 months.”

Almond prices have declined by approximately 50 percent over the past  
year, spurring a drop in rural land values. For example, values for  
almond orchards in Tulare County are expected to drop from $34,500 in  
2015 to $26,000 by the end of next year. That’s a decline of almost 25  
percent.

The report, “California Land Values: Outlook 2016,” analyzed USDA  
cropland values and rural land sales data from the American Society of  
Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA). Rabobank also interviewed  
rural real estate appraisers, and used a set of econometric equations  
based on crop prices and macroeconomic variables to estimate likely  
changes in the average economic value of rural land in each California  
region.

The report looked at agricultural land land values in the Sacramento  
Valley, San Joaquin Valley, North Coast, Central Coast and Southern  
California.

“Agricultural land values in the Sacramento Valley have soared in  
recent years compared to all other regions in the state,” according to  
Rabobank. “From 2010 to 2015, the region’s compound annual growth rate  
(CAGR) based on ASFMRA data was 18.2 percent, vastly higher than the  
CAGR of 5.0 percent between 1999 and 2010. The biggest increases were  
fueled in part by specialty crops including tree nuts, some of which  
are now experiencing significant price declines. Accordingly, falling  
walnut prices could drive some land values down 31 percent in 2016 and  
15 percent in 2017.”

“Like its Sacramento Valley neighbor to the North, recent declines in  
tree nut prices are creating a general downward expectation. The  
severity of the drop will depend on the specific area of the valley,  
crop type and water access. Between 1999 and 2010, the valley’s  
agricultural land values rose at an average CAGR of 6.5 percent, and  
15.5 percent between 2010 and 2015," Rabobank stated.

For more information, go to: www.rabobankamerica.com/...

During the peak of the drought In March 2015, Stewart Resnick, Beverly  
Hills billionaire and the largest tree fruit grower in the world,  
revealed his efforts to expand pistachio, almond, and walnut acreage  
at the annual pistachio conference hosted by Paramount Farms (now  
renamed The Wonderful Company).

At the event covered by the Western Farm Press, Resnick boasted about  
the increase in his nut acreage over the previous ten years, including  
a 118-percent increase for pistachios, a 47-percent increase for  
almonds, and a 30-percent increase for walnuts.  
(westernfarmpress.com/...)

Resnick and his wife, Lynda, have a huge impact on water supplies in  
California. The Resnicks use more water than every home in Los Angeles  
combined, according to Mother Jones magazine. (www.motherjones.com/...)

The Resnicks are among the most avid proponents of the governor’s  
California WaterFix, the new name for Brown’s controversial plan to  
build two giant water tunnels underneath the fragile Sacramento-San  
Joaquin River Delta — a project that conservationists, Tribal leaders,  
Delta farmers, fishermen and environmental justice advocates say will  
potentially be the most destructive public works project in California  
history.

The tunnels would divert water from the Sacramento River for export to  
agribusinesses on the arid west side of the San Joaquin Valley,  
Southern California water agencies, and oil companies that engage in  
fracking and other environmentally damaging oil extraction methods in  
Kern County.

So let’s get this right — the Brown administration demanded that urban  
users slash their water use by 25 percent and sacrificed economically  
and ecologically valuable San Francisco Bay-Delta and ocean fisheries  
so that politically powerful billionaires like Stewart and Lynda  
Resnick could expand their acreage in almond and other nut crops to  
make themselves even wealthier?

Now the apparent saturation of the almond market fueled by  
agribusiness greed has spurred the drop in almond prices and the  
devaluation of Central Valley farm land.

Meanwhile, Governor Brown is relentlessly promoting the construction  
of his environmentally devastating “legacy” project, the Delta Tunnels  
plan, to export massive quantities of water to these growers and  
Southern California water agencies. You just can’t make this stuff up!


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