[env-trinity] Chronicle- Field Poll results show support for $7.5 billion state water bond

[Tom Stokely]

The California Water Impact Network (C-WIN, online at www.c-win.org) is opposed to the Water Bond, Proposition 1.  C-WIN's initial press release is attached. 


Some notes on the Field Poll Results
 
The Field Poll found a slightly higher level of support than the No On 1 pollster did:
52 to 27 with 21 percent undecided
VS.
42 to 24 with 34 undecided
 
A couple of points:

The Field Poll interviewed 150 fewer voters than the No On 1 poll, so No On 1 numbers have greater reliability.

The Field Poll did not read the ballot label exactly as voters will see it on the ballot as they vote, but read a slightly more voter-friendly summary of the measure – close, but not the official language.

The margin of error for the Field Poll is 4.5 points and the No On 1 margin of error is 4 points – so the findings are close to that broad range.
 
The two polls combined found that support is still weak, barely over 50% and voters know very little about the measure.
 
Most ballot measures are decided by the Independent voters. The Field Poll found them below 50%, at 47 to 30 with 23 percent undecided. 

Tom Stokely
Water Policy Analyst/Media Contact
California Water Impact Network
V/FAX 530-926-9727
Cell 530-524-0315
tstokely at att.net
http://www.c-win.org

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Field-Poll-results-show-support-for-7-5-billion-5745392.php

Field Poll results show support for $7.5 billion state water bond
Melody Gutierrez Sacramento --Updated 9:17 am, Wednesday, September 10, 2014
California voters are likely to approve a $7.5 billion water bond on the November statewide ballot, according to a Field Poll released Wednesday.
By nearly 2 to 1, voters indicated they support the water bond, a somewhat surprising result given that the majority of people polled reported at first that they were not familiar with Proposition 1.
"That's interesting to me," said poll Director Mark DiCamillo. "I would have guessed there would be more awareness among likely voters. These are the people we believe will show up on election day. ... It's almost like many voters aren't aware an election is coming up."
Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they would vote yes for the water bond, while 27 percent planned to vote no and 21 percent were undecided. Among voters who indicated they were already familiar with the water bond, support was 57 percent in favor and 25 percent against.
DiCamillo said that's a favorable result in the poll, indicating that as people learn about the water bond, their support for it increases.
Welcome news
"The prospects are pretty good at this point," he said.
That will be welcomed news for state officials, who said the water bond will provide critical improvements to California's water delivery system and help combat the effects of the current drought and those that follow.
Measures withdrawn
Lawmakers voted last month to swap out an $11 billion water bond with the scaled-back $7.5 billion version, which was renamed Prop. 1 to improve its chances by moving it to the top of the November ballot.
Lawmakers pulled the $11 billion water bond from the ballot in 2010 and 2012 due to low voter approval ratings. That larger bond was often criticized as being "pork-laden," with millions directed to nonessential programs to garner enough votes to pass the Legislature.
The revised bond includes $2.7 billion for water storage projects, $900 million for groundwater cleanup and monitoring, $725 million for water recycling and $1.5 billion for watershed restoration programs. Prop. 1 asks voters to approve $7.12 billion in new bond debt and reallocates $425 million in existing unspent bond funds to bring the total spending plan to $7.5 billion.
Drought a factor
The state anticipates it would cost $360 million annually over 40 years to pay off the bond debt.
In the Field Poll, DiCamillo said there is no doubt that California's drought is driving some of the support for Prop. 1. Previous polls that focused on the state's water shortage showed nearly all voters surveyed describe the current drought as serious.
"The drought is clearly on voters' minds and they recognize it as a serious situation," he said.
Despite Prop. 1 clearing the state Legislature with overwhelming bipartisan support, the poll showed Republican voters lining up against it. Democrats support the water bond 66 percent yes to 13 percent no, while Republican voters were 35 percent yes and 49 percent no.
The Bay Area showed significant support for the bond, with 62 percent of likely voters approving of it. Despite a long history in California of water issues falling on regional - not partisan - lines, DiCamillo said the poll didn't reflect that.
"There isn't a major region of the state showing opposition," he said. "That's a story in and of itself."
The Field Poll surveyed 467 registered voters in California between Aug. 14 and 28 about whether they were aware of the water bond listed on the November ballot as Prop. 1 and whether they supported it.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Melody Gutierrez is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: mgutierrez at sfchronicle.com Twitter:@MelodyGutierrez
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