[env-trinity] CBB: Science panel says smolt-to-adult return objectives should be re-evaluated

Tue Nov 5 11:30:18 PST 2013

And what about the Klamath Basin - what are the objectives here for each
species?

Columbia Basin Bulletin

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Basin Salmon Science Panel Says Smolt-To-Adult Return Objectives Should Be
Re-Evaluated 
Posted on Friday, November 01, 2013 (PST) 

A new Independent Scientific Advisory Board review of the Fish Passage
Center's long-running Comparative Survival Study has shown trends in the
survival of salmon and steelhead that navigate the Columbia-Snake river
hydro system.

Now the researchers need to look closer at what causes the survival
differentials, according to the ISAB's "Review of the Comparative Survival
Study's Draft 2013 Report."

ISAB's membership is selected to serve the National Marine Fisheries
Service, Columbia River Indian tribes, and Northwest Power and Conservation
Council by providing independent scientific advice and recommendations
regarding scientific issues that relate to the respective agencies' fish and
wildlife programs.

The Oct. 15 report is among several reviews completed in October by the ISAB
and by the Independent Scientific Review Panel, which reviews for scientific
merit programs proposed for funding under the NPCC's Columbia River Fish and
Wildlife Program. The reports can be found at:  <http://www.nwcouncil.org/>
http://www.nwcouncil.org/

The Fish Passage Center is funded by the Bonneville Power Administration
through the NPCC's Fish and Wildlife Program to collect data, largely
stemming from fish implanted with passive integrated transponder tags, and
evaluate flow and spill measures that are implemented to provide mitigation
for impacts to mainstem Columbia and Snake river migration conditions due to
hydrosystem development and operation. The hydrosystem is also known as the
Federal Columbia River Power System. 

The ultimate measure is smolt-to-adult returns, the percentage of fish that
swim down the river as juveniles, mature in the Pacific Ocean and survive to
return to the Columbia-Snake system as adults to spawn and produce a next
generation. 

"The CSS is a large-system study that has collected a substantial amount of
PIT-tag data from multiple species and stocks over a 17-year period, but to
date identification of hypotheses on the causal mechanisms regulating SARs
has been limited," the ISAB report says. "The ISAB suggests a comparative
approach to identifying hypotheses that may lead to a greater understanding
of causal mechanisms."

The Council's program calls for a regular system of independent and timely
science reviews of the FPC's analytical products. The ISAB review begins by
suggesting topics for further CSS review, then provides general and specific
comments on each chapter of the report, and ends with specific editorial
suggestions.

"A detailed reevaluation of SAR objectives (2-6 percent) is warranted," the
ISAB report's executive summary says. (The ISAB expressed similar sentiments
a year ago. See CBB, Oct. 26, 2012, "Review Of Long-Running Salmon Survival
Study: Smolt-To-Adult Return Goals Should Be Reassessed"
<http://www.cbbulletin.com/423530.aspx>
http://www.cbbulletin.com/423530.aspx)

"These objectives should be reevaluated for each species and Evolutionarily
Significant Unit (ESU) of salmon and steelhead based on realistic values
needed to support robust viable populations." A total of 13 Columbia River
basin groupings of salmon and steelhead populations - ESUs - are listed by
NOAA Fisheries under the Endangered Species Act as either threatened or
endangered.

"Discrepancies in SARs between PIT-tagged and non-PIT-tagged fish reported
in other publications raise two important issues that could be addressed
now: (1) what are the implications of correcting biased SAR estimates from
PIT tags with respect to performance against recovery and Fish and Wildlife
Program objectives, and (2) what proportion of US Endangered Species Act
(ESA)-listed populations are being PIT-tagged and what are the implications
for imposing this additional mortality?

"Further work is needed to analyze the relationship between the ratio of
transport/in-river SARs and in-river survival," the ISAB report says. 

"With many years of experience now, the CSS needs to identify critical data
gaps. What crucial pieces of information are not addressed by the CSS, and
what improvements can be made to provide them?

"Some examples provided by the ISAB include the lack of habitat-specific
estimates of smolt survival in the estuary, information on how age at
maturation affects SARs, the contribution of mini-jacks to SARs, and the
relationship between SARs and biomass of adult returns of hatchery and wild
salmon.

"The ISAB recommends a new focus on rationalization of the PIT-tagging
program given the very large detection infrastructure already in place and
the overlapping objectives of the different tagging.

"It may be possible to reduce the numbers of populations and fish that are
PIT tagged without significant loss of information, leading to greater
program efficiencies at lower cost."

"The ISAB also recommends that the CSS prepare and submit a manuscript for
peer-reviewed publication that synthesizes and critically reviews the
results of the CSS study.

"Most of the information in the CSS's 2013 report is an annual update of
information in previous year's reports. Our summary, therefore, focuses on
new information presented in Chapter 2, which develops and describes a
simple life-cycle model. In this model, information from multiple
populations is used to estimate parameters common to the different
populations (ocean survival) while allowing each population to have a
different spawner/recruit relationship." 

The ISAB in a report completed Oct. 18 also critiqued a NOAA Fisheries
statistical modeling effort aimed at improving upon previous efforts
estimate hydro system and climate effects on salmonid population viability,
and expand on those efforts by covering more populations and habitat
restoration actions, as well as improving representation of climate effects,
hatchery spawners, and spatial interactions. 

The ISAB "Review of NOAA Fisheries' Life-Cycle Models of Salmonid
Populations in the Interior Columbia River Basin (June 28, 2013 draft)" can
be found at:

 <http://www.nwcouncil.org/fw/isab/isab2013-5/>
http://www.nwcouncil.org/fw/isab/isab2013-5/

A key goal of such life-cycle models is to inform decision makers about the
influence of restoration activities on the recovery and viability of
ESA-listed salmon in the Columbia Basin.

The NOAA Fisheries models look at potential impacts of habitat restoration
actions, hatchery "supplementation," estuary and ocean conditions, climate
change, the hydro system, population spatial structure and other factors.

"Chapter 4 describes a novel modeling approach for investigating the likely
effects of hatchery supplementation on wild salmon population dynamics," the
ISAB report says. "This well-developed investigation used several decades of
data for 23 Snake River spring chinook populations. 

"The ISAB commends the extensive use of existing data here and in many of
the other models. This investigation provides compelling evidence indicating
that numbers of hatchery salmon spawning in rivers accentuates density
dependence such that lower survival offsets the anticipated benefits of
supplementation for spring chinook salmon.

"This modeling approach should be utilized for other species and watersheds
when sufficient data exist, and the findings should be incorporated into
other life-cycle models."

Two reports were completed by the ISRP in October.

In a "Review of Progress Report for the Upper Columbia United Tribes
Wildlife Monitoring and Evaluation Program" the ISRP concluded that the UCUT
progress report on its analysis of terrestrial vertebrate and vegetation
response to ecological restoration provides "a very good summary of
analytical approaches and a thoughtful and rigorous preliminary analysis of
data," and thus meets scientific criteria needed to receive funding through
the Council program.

The ISRP also on Oct. 15 produced a "Response Review of the Kootenai River
Floodplain Ecosystem Operation Loss Assessment Report" from the Kootenai
Tribe of Idaho.

"The project was initiated to assess and mitigate the impacts related to the
operation of Libby Dam," the ISRP review says. "As described by the
sponsors' cover letter, they developed indices that quantify abiotic and
biotic perturbations of the ecosystem and used a standardized scale to
compare and contrast between indices. In addition, they note that products
developed to build these indices (LiDAR, land cover classification maps,
etc.) have provided information to other Kootenai River projects, such as
the Kootenai River Habitat Restoration Project, the Reconnect Kootenai River
with Historic Floodplain Project, and Albeni Falls Wildlife Mitigation
Project.

"The ISRP recommends that the project 'Meets Scientific Review Criteria
(Qualified).' The qualifications are that the ISRP would like to review the
multi-year restoration plan, including specific goals and 5-10 year,
quantitative objectives for their actions. The ISRP would also like to see
documentation of progress at regular intervals of 1-2 years."

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