[env-trinity] Information on Trinity River Water Year Forecast 50% vs. 90% exceedance

[Tom Stokely]

All,

There was a discussion today at the TAMWG meeting about forecasting water year types for Trinity River fishery flows.  The 2000 Trinity River Record of Decision called for an April 1 forecast using a 90% exceedance forecast.  Thanks to Spreck Rosecrans, formerly of Environmental Defense Fund, the Trinity ROD was changed to a 50% exceedance forecast on April 1 because it more accurately reflects actual inflows after April 1.

You can find the documents that Spreck put together on this issue on the USFWS's TAMWG website for the December 7, 2005 meeting under attachments for meeting minutes:  http://www.fws.gov/arcata/fisheries/tamwg_2005documents.html#07Dec05 

It is covered under items 4, 4a and 4b.  

This is the reason that Spreck was, for awhile, my "favorite corporate environmentalist."  He subsequently lost that status due to several factors, including most recently, the fact that he is no longer corporate.

Tom Stokely
Water Policy Analyst/Media Contact
California Water Impact Network
V/FAX 530-926-9727
Cell 530-524-0315
tstokely at att.net
http://www.c-win.org