[env-trinity] Contra Costa Times 1 20 11

Thu Jan 20 16:02:34 PST 2011

UC expert compares problems in the Delta to New Orleans before Hurricane
Katrina.

<mailto:mtaugher at bayareanewsgroup.com?subject=ContraCostaTimes.com:%20UC%20e
xpert%20compares%20problems%20in%20the%20Delta%20to%20New%20Orleans%20before
%20Hurricane%20Katrina.> By Mike Taugher
Contra Costa Times

Posted: 01/19/2011 04:05:59 PM PST

Updated: 01/20/2011 06:17:04 AM PST

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Bob Bea has investigated such high-profile disasters as the Exxon Valdez
spill, the Deepwater Horizon blast, Hurricane Katrina and the space shuttle
Columbia, which exploded in 2003.

But the UC engineer and associate director of the Center for Catastrophic
Risk Management says the problems looming in the Delta dwarf the others
because of the vulnerability of levees and the threat that poses to drinking
water, power, transportation and other infrastructure.

"It's the worst damn mess I've ever seen, and I've seen some pretty bad
ones," Bea told a Contra Costa water task force in Pleasant Hill on
Wednesday.

The problem is not just the conflict between the Delta's ecosystem and the
demand for water. It is flood safety and the risks that levee failure poses
to a web of aqueducts, power lines, telecommunications, highways and rail
lines.

The levees and other infrastructure are getting older, the risks are getting
larger and no one seems to know how to untangle the "Gordian knot."

"We've got this infrastructure that is powering a very critical economic
engine," Bea said, adding that the Delta is on a "roadmap to disaster."

Bea and a team of researchers are about halfway through a four-year study of
how to assess and manage threats in the Delta, which touches five counties
and provides a portion of water for two-thirds of Californians.

The most immediate thing that can be done is to get the operators of the
Delta's aqueducts, power lines, railroads and highways communicating better
now so that the response in an emergency will be smoother, said Bea's
colleague, Emery Roe, a policy analyst at UC and Mills College. 

Some of those who attended the meeting, hosted by the Contra Costa Council's
water task force, questioned whether the Delta's levees are really that
fragile. Many of the region's levees date to the Gold Rush and they could
fail in a large earthquake or flood, allowing water to rush into the farms
and developments built below sea level and contaminate drinking water with
salt water from San Francisco Bay.

Previous studies on the Delta's levees have been hurried or were susceptible
to political pressure, a few levee engineers said. 

Many Delta residents contend state government has a political interest in
making the levees appear vulnerable because that boosts the argument for a
peripheral canal or tunnels to divert water around the area. If a canal or
tunnels were built, a levee failure might no longer cause seawater to
intrude into drinking water supplies, although flooding would still inundate
farms and, potentially, houses.

Bea agreed many previous studies were flawed, but added that he had yet to
see an analysis that showed there is no problem in the Delta.

The risk of flooding, he contends, is great. And like New Orleans before
Hurricane Katrina, Delta experts know about the problems while little is
getting done to address them.

There are two basic ways to cope, Bea said. California can adopt a "stand
and fight" approach to maintain and repair levees or it can adopt a
"strategic retreat" in which highways, railroads, aqueducts and power lines
are gradually moved out of harm's way. When the Delta's bowl-like islands
are flooded, perhaps they could be left that way.

Neither of those approaches, however, provides a clear way to address the
Delta's fundamental conflict between water supplies and its ecosystem. A
canal or tunnel to move water outside the levee-lined channels would come
with its own risks, Bea said.

"The water (issue) is the devil we can't see through yet," Bea said.

Byron Leydecker, JcT

Chair, Friends of Trinity River

PO Box 2327

Mill Valley, CA 94942-2327

415 383 4810 land

415 519 4810 mobile

 <mailto:bwl3 at comcast.net> bwl3 at comcast.net

 <mailto:bleydecker at stanfordalumni.org> bleydecker at stanfordalumni.org
(secondary)

 <http://fotr.org/> http://www.fotr.org 

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