[env-trinity] NOAA research links sea temp to Salmon return numbers

[Greg King]

All,

My question was meant to go only to Sari, I didn't realize it would  
go to the entire list. The dangers of email.

The question was rhetorical, as I have had several inquiries as to  
whether the "ocean conditions" claim is a "smokescreen" to cover for  
a lack of protections for the Sacramento. Part of my job is to get to  
the bottom of these things, the politics v. science, on behalf of our  
members. But I meant no offense to scientists at NOAA or elsewhere. I  
am seeking more concrete answers.

Thanks to all for your understanding,

Greg

On Mar 13, 2008, at 12:00 PM, Greg King wrote:

> Ocean conditions do not explain why the Sac run has been devastated  
> in a few short years while the Klamath run has remained  
> (relatively) stable. Could it be that NOAA is attempting to shift  
> attention from the abysmal habitat conditions in the Sacramento River?
>
> Greg King
> Executive Director
> Northcoast Environmental Center
> 1465 G Street
> Arcata, CA 95521
> (707) 822-6918
> greg at yournec.org
> http://www.yournec.org
>
>
> On Mar 10, 2008, at 10:39 AM, Sari Sommarstrom wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> THE COLUMBIA BASIN BULLETIN:
>> Weekly Fish and Wildlife News
>> www.cbbulletin.com.
>> March 7, 2008
>> Issue No. 430
>>
>> -----------------------------
>>
>> * NOAA RESEARCH LINKING SEA TEMPERATURE SWINGS TO SALMON RETURN  
>> NUMBERS
>>
>> North Pacific sea surface temperatures have historically swung up  
>> and down in 20 to 30-year cycles, changing with it climatic and  
>> ecological variables that shift the fate of salmon.
>>
>> That cold-warm-cold-warm pattern has quickened over the past 10  
>> years -- exhibiting turnarounds that have lasted only four years,  
>> according to research being conducted by the NOAA Fisheries  
>> Service's Northwest Fisheries Science Center.
>>
>> The good news is that this sea surface cycle, dubbed the Pacific  
>> Decadal Oscillation, last year appeared to have entered a  
>> negative, cool phase, which most often signals a rise in the  
>> number of salmon that return to the Columbia River basin in  
>> succeeding years.
>>
>> The PDO, like shorter term La Nina/El Nino (ENSO) patterns, is  
>> characterized by changes in sea surface temperature, sea level  
>> pressure, and wind patterns. Past research has shown that warm  
>> eras have seen enhanced coastal ocean biological productivity in  
>> Alaska and inhibited productivity off the west coast of the  
>> contiguous United States. Cold periods reverse that north-south  
>> pattern of marine ecosystem productivity.
>>
>> "The biology reacts quickly" to such changes in ocean conditions,  
>> according to Edmundo Casillas, NWFSC Ocean and Estuary program  
>> leader. "Salmon respond equally as fast."
>>
>> During a Thursday presentation to the Columbia Basin's Regional  
>> Forum Implementation Team, Casillas pointed out that at no time  
>> since 1900 had there been a deviation from an established PDO  
>> regime of longer than 16 months. Once established, warm or cool  
>> regimes have stayed locked in with an occasional brief lapse,  
>> sometimes influenced by a contrary ENSO.
>>
>> Most recent history shows, however, that the North Pacific has had  
>> two shifts of four years duration recently: a cold era from  
>> 1999-2002 and warm period from 2003-2006. Chinook salmon returns  
>> to the Columbia mirrored those trends with total numbers climbing  
>> upwards from 2000-2003, then declining for the next four years.
>>
>> The University of Washington scientist Nathan Mantua and  
>> colleagues were the first to show that adult salmon catches in the  
>> Northeast Pacific were correlated with the PDO.
>>
>> Regardless of the duration of any ocean condition, it is important  
>> that freshwater fish managers know what is happening so they can  
>> evaluate the benefits of salmon recovery actions and respond  
>> accordingly, Casillas said. Advancing global warming could  
>> complicate things, affecting the duration and variability of the  
>> large scale climate forces.
>>
>> "You need to be cognizant of what's going on in the ocean to do  
>> what you need to do in freshwater," Casillas said. In anticipation  
>> of poor ocean conditions, as an example, hatchery managers might  
>> scale back their production to reduce potential competition  
>> between hatchery and wild fish for resources that will be in short  
>> supply.
>>
>> The NWRFC has for the past 10 years been monitoring a variety of  
>> physical and biological ocean conditions that may affect the  
>> growth and survival of juvenile salmon in the northern California  
>> current off Oregon and Washington. The 30-40 mile swath of ocean  
>> represents the young fishes' first saltwater experience after they  
>> leave the Columbia River estuary.
>>
>> "That's when they're smallest and most vulnerable" to predators  
>> and other natural forces, and when the recruitment into future  
>> adult returns can most be affected, Casillas said.
>>
>> Those physical, biological and ecosystem "indicators" have for the  
>> past few years been fed into a forecasting tool that documents  
>> current ocean conditions and potential impact on salmon survival 1  
>> to 2 years ahead of their actual return. The NWFSC monitoring and  
>> forecasting focuses on that first year at sea through food-chain  
>> processes.
>>
>> The most recent forecast, released late last month, says that the  
>> PDO tide has turned, shifting last year to a neutral, and then a  
>> negative, cool phase. Environmental changes seemed to follow.
>>
>> "What we're seeing is the ocean is improving," said Casillas. The  
>> latest "Ocean Ecosystem Indicators of Salmon Marine Survival in  
>> the Northern California Current" forecast's indicators,  
>> cumulatively, fall in the positive (for fish) mid-range.
>>
>> "Most indicators in 2007 pointed toward greatly improved ocean  
>> conditions compared to the previous few years. Indicators that  
>> point to good salmon survival included a cold ocean in winter/ 
>> spring 2007, an early spring transition date, high biomass of  
>> cold--water lipid--rich copepods, and a long upwelling season."  
>> according to the updated NWFSC adult spring chinook and coho  
>> forecast. "Negative indicators included weak upwelling in late  
>> spring and summer, very warm sea surface temperatures, and low  
>> catches of juvenile coho in September surveys."
>>
>> Fish sampling last year also showed a good news-bad news result.  
>> In June 2007, trawl surveys collected the third highest number of  
>> juvenile spring chinook in the 10 years of sampling. That suggests  
>> "improved adult spring chinook runs can be expected in 2009,"  
>> according to the forecast, when the first adults from that year  
>> class return to the Columbia.
>>
>> Catches of juvenile coho in September produced some of the lowest  
>> catches of juvenile coho (7th worse in 10 years of surveys).
>>
>> "Since it is widely believed that juvenile coho live only within  
>> the upper few meters of the water column, we hypothesize that the  
>> anomalously warm waters, in some way, led to the demise of the  
>> juvenile coho.
>>
>> "They either moved (out of the sampling area) or they died. We  
>> think they died," Casillas said. The trawl surveys follow eight  
>> transect lines running from Newport, Ore., north to La Push, Wash.
>>
>> The forecast calls for a poor coho return, though improved numbers  
>> for coho that went to sea in 2007 and return in 2008. The  
>> relatively early transition of the zooplankton community in  
>> spring, and the high biomass of coldwater zooplankton species  
>> could counter to some extent coho trawl catch statistics.
>>
>> Ocean conditions at the time of the spring chinook's ocean entry  
>> were "very good" last year.
>>
>> "Since spring chinook juveniles reside in waters off Oregon and  
>> Washington for only a few weeks before migrating north to unknown  
>> waters, their survival might have been relatively well supported  
>> by these conditions. These fish could begin to return as early as  
>> spring 2009," the forecast says.
>>
>> Adult return data displayed as part of the forecast show that the  
>> 4-year period of cold ocean conditions (1999-2002) resulted in  
>> good returns of chinook salmon. Warm ocean conditions from 2003 to  
>> 2006 correspond with declining returns.
>>
>> "We expect at least one more year of poor returns from this  
>> period, after which returns should begin to increase, so long as  
>> the cold ocean conditions observed in 2007 continue into 2008 and  
>> beyond," the forecast says.
>>
>> The forecast charts an "improving set of conditions" that began  
>> later in 2006, Casillas said. The numerous variables monitored  
>> came out, on average overall, in the mid-range for fish that  
>> emerged from the Columbia in 2006, thus anticipated an improved  
>> spring chinook return this year.
>>
>> Federal, state and tribal fishery officials have forecast a strong  
>> upriver spring chinook return this year. That prediction was based  
>> in large part on a near-record return of "jacks," fish that  
>> returned after only one year in the ocean.
>>
>> The forecast can be found at:
>> http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/a-ecinhome.cfm
>>
>> -----------------------------
>>
>> * NOAA SCIENTISTS STUDYING IMPACTS OF ANOMALY IN CALIFORNIA  
>> CURRENT IN 2005
>>
>> NOAA scientists are reviewing unusual environmental conditions in  
>> the Pacific Ocean as the likely culprit for the dramatically low  
>> returns of chinook and coho salmon to rivers and streams along the  
>> West Coast of the United States in 2007.
>>
>> Researchers from NOAA's Northwest and Southwest Fisheries Science  
>> Centers are comparing data on the low food production of the  
>> California Current in 2005 that occurred when this year's and  
>> 2007's returning salmon would have been entering the ocean from  
>> their natal streams to feed and grow.
>>
>> The cold waters of the California Current flow southward from the  
>> northern Pacific along the West Coast and are associated with  
>> upwelling, an ocean condition caused by winds that bring nutrients  
>> to the ocean's surface and is the main source of nourishment for  
>> the ocean's food web.
>>
>> In 2005 a southward shift in the jet stream, delayed favorable  
>> winds and upwelling for the California Current, which normally  
>> begins in spring. The winds instead arrived in mid-July, causing  
>> high surface water temperatures and very low nutrient production  
>> within the nearshore marine ecosystem.
>>
>> "We are not dismissing other potential causes for this year's low  
>> salmon returns," said Usha Varanasi, NOAA Fisheries Service  
>> Science Center director for the Northwest Region. "But the  
>> widespread pattern of low returns along the West Coast for two  
>> species of salmon indicates an environmental anomaly occurred in  
>> the California Current in 2005."
>>
>> Data released Thursday by the Pacific Fisheries Management Council  
>> indicate the 2007 returns of fall chinook salmon to the Sacramento  
>> River in California's Central Valley were approximately 33 percent  
>> of what fishery biologists expected. Projections for 2008 are  
>> substantially lower than last year's estimate.
>>
>> Coho salmon returning to spawning streams in California and Oregon  
>> are also considerably lower than predicted. A preliminary analysis  
>> found an average 27 percent of the parental stock returning in 12  
>> streams monitored in California. Even though coho returns appear  
>> to improve along the coast from south to north, Oregon Coast coho  
>> salmon had less than 30 percent of their parental stock return.
>>
>> Coho salmon are listed as either endangered or threatened under  
>> the Endangered Species Act in the Central/Northern California and  
>> Southern Oregon watersheds
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--
Greg King
Executive Director
Northcoast Environmental Center
1465 G Street
Arcata, CA 95521
(707) 822-6918
greg at yournec.org
http://www.yournec.org



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