[Davis Democrats] FW: Where Bush-Cheney needs to be

[G Richard Yamagata PhD]

Greetings All,

This e-mail was sent by John Chendo.  I have forwarded it to this list.  I
apologize if you have aleady seen this e-mail via another route.

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From: "Mark Mellman, Kerry-Edwards 2004" <info at johnkerry.com>
Reply-To: "Mark Mellman, Kerry-Edwards 2004"
<kerry_CD6DF86DCED4A060F852EEF3FD15F3DF at activate.johnkerry.com>
Date: 24 Aug 2004 06:52:11 PDT
To: jac07 at dcn.org
Subject: Where Bush-Cheney needs to be

  The Kerry-Edwards Campaign
Mark Mellman, Senior Strategist
Where Bush-Cheney Needs To Be
August 24, 2004 

As a senior strategist for John Kerry, I have prepared this update for the
campaign's most active supporters as we enter the crucial weeks ahead.  It's
clear that your support has put this campaign in such a strong position as
we enter a critical period. Your hard work, activism, and contributions have
allowed our campaign to match the Bush campaign on the airwaves and on the
ground. I can report that all you've done is now paying off when it counts
the most. 

By any standard, President Bush heads into his convention in a very weak
position. His current position stems from the fact that voters judge the
incumbent on his performance and on the state of the nation.  By this
measure, the president is in grave difficulty.  To be counted a success, the
Republican convention must fundamentally alter public attitudes on President
Bush's stewardship of the country.

There are some basic benchmarks by which an incumbent's success can be
measured as the campaign heads into the fall:
1.  The average winning incumbent has had a job approval rating of 60%. Indeed,
every incumbent who has won reelection has had his job approval in the
mid-50's or higher at this point.  In recent polling, Bush's average
approval rating has been 48%.  President Bush must emerge from his
convention having dramatically altered public perception of his performance
in office. 
2.  In recent years, when incumbents have gone on to victory, 52% of voters, 
on average, said the country was on the right track.  Now, just 37% think
things are moving in the right direction.  Thus, President Bush must
convince the electorate that the nation is in much better shape than voters
now believe to be the case.
Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead
at this point. 
3.  Following their conventions, the average elected incumbent has held a
16-point lead, while winning incumbents have led by an average of 27 points.
Bush will need a very substantial bounce to reach the mark set by his
successful predecessors.
4.  Incumbents have enjoyed an average bounce in the vote margin of 8 points.
On average, incumbents' share of the two-party vote has declined by 4 points
between their convention and Election Day.
5.  President Bush has the opportunity to achieve an average, or even greater,
bounce from his convention.  Typically, elected incumbents go into their
conventions with a 9-point lead, while incumbents who have gone on to win
enter their conventions with a 21-point lead.  Most current polls show the
race quite close.  This gives the president substantial room to bounce. By
contrast, Senator Kerry entered his convention in a far stronger position
than the average challenger.  The average challenger goes into his
convention 16 points behind, while Senator Kerry entered his convention with
a 1-2 point lead.  This gave Senator Kerry much less room to bounce.

However, as the data above makes clear, average is not enough for President
Bush.  Incumbents who went on to win reelection had an average lead of 27
points after their convention.  Indeed, the average elected incumbent --
winners and losers -- had a lead of 16 points after their conventions.  An
average bounce would still leave Bush well below the historical mark set by
other incumbents, particularly those who went on to victory.

Perhaps most important, the average elected incumbent experienced a 4-point
drop in his share of the two-party vote from the post-convention polling to
Election Day.  Thus, to beat the odds, President Bush will need to be
garnering 55% of the two-party vote after his convention.  Anything less
than that and the president will remain in grave political danger.

Paid for by Kerry-Edwards 2004, Inc.
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G Richard Yamagata  PhD
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