[1st-mile-nm] Internet Exaflood

[Steve Ross]

We've actually run those numbers -- Bret spoke at the FTTH 
Council meeting in October, and we reported on it in our 
December issue.

But we actually think they are too low. The historic growth 
of traffic into and out of metro rings would be closer to 
500-fold in seven years, 1000-fold in 10 years -- as their 
own "backbone" data suggests. What's more, the technologies 
that would create that demand are already obvious -- 4K HD 
video, 3D HD video, huge surge in peer to peer networking, 
and Metcalf's Law.

Hell, my 88-year-old mother uses more bandwidth than I do 
(Netflix downloads, 2-way video with her great-grandchild). 
And her demographic isn't even being explored.


Steven S. Ross
Editor-in-Chief
Broadband Properties
steve at broadbandproperties.com
www.bbpmag.com
SKYPE: editorsteve
+1 781-284-8810
+1 646-216-8030 fax
+1 201-456-5933 mobile

Richard Lowenberg wrote:
> This is the latest in a series of reports on the rapid increase in network
> traffic (in the US).   It provokes concern and calls to action for
> investments, deployments and policies to address this critical aspect of
> our economies and local-global society development.
> rl
> -----
> 
> STUDY: U.S. NET TRAFFIC TO GROW 50-FOLD BY 2015
> 
> Estimating the Exaflood: The Impact of Video and Rich Media on the
> Internet
> 
> http://www.discovery.org/a/4428
> 
> New technologies are dramatically transforming the Internet and could
> boost IP traffic in the United States more than 50-fold within the next
> decade, according to Estimating the Exaflood: The Impact of Video and Rich
> Media on the Internet, a report released by the Discovery Institute. The
> 24-page report, co-authored by Bret Swanson and George Gilder, a senior
> fellow at the Discovery Institute, describes the technologies and trends
> that will drive Internet growth. It projects IP traffic levels overall and
> by application. By 2015, video calling and virtual windows, for example,
> could total 400 exabytes a year, or about 40 percent of U.S. traffic. The
> report estimates that by 2015 annual U.S. Internet and IP traffic will
> reach 1,000 exabytes, or one zettabyte, which is one million million
> billion bytes of data. A zettabyte is roughly equivalent to 50 million
> Libraries of Congress. According to the report, capacity in broadband
> access networks to homes and businesses must expand by a factor of between
> 10 and 100 over the next few years. New network investments expanding
> bandwidth, storage, and traffic management capabilities in the U.S. could
> total more than $100 billion in the next half-decade alone. Technology
> remains the key engine of U.S. economic growth and its competitive edge,
> the authors contend. Policies that encourage investment and innovation in
> our digital and communications sectors should be among Americas highest
> national priorities, they believe.
> 
> 
> ------------------------------------------------
> Richard Lowenberg
> P.O.Box 8001, Santa Fe, NM 87504
> 505-989-9110,  505-603-5200 cell
> 
> 1st-Mile Institute
> New Mexico Broadband Initiative
> www.1st-mile.com
> ------------------------------------------------
> 
> 
> 
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